Quote Originally Posted by aussiebreno View Post
Is barrier 4 at Penrith better than barrier 1 at Penrith? Or is #1 just that outclassed it can't make use of the barrier?

Race fields are getting way to complicated. Leave it up the horses. Equal number of wins RBD. They will win their share of races and then be in their right class.

Scenario 1

Week 1. C1 PBD race. Horseymchorseface is #1 and $5. Horsesforcourses is # 10 and $1.90. Horseymchorseface gets sprint lane and wins, Horseforcourses 3wide last lap gets beat 1/2 length.

Week 2. C1 race Horseforcourses $1.60. C2-C3 Horseymchorseface $20

Scenario 2.

Week 1. C1 RBD race Horsemchorse face #5 is $10, Horsesforcourses #6 is $1.50. Horseforcourses wins.

Week 2. C1 Horsemchorseface is $5 (no longer has to compete with superior Horsesforcourses) while C2-C3 race Horsesforcourses is $8 (more suited to C2-C3 races than Horseymchorseface)


By evening it up you just make the better horses odds on more regularly, and the lucky PBD winners longer roughie odds when they're up in class. Week 1 might have been all good but week 2 is where it hurts and week 2 carries on longer than just that week because Horsesforcourses can continue getting beat because the PBD system screws him, whilst Horseymchorseface continues to be long odds because he can't compete in that grade.

10 start drop back rule is crap too. Fields are sizes of 10. You should win 1/10. That you didn't win in that 10 is just a basic statistic anomaly. Those horses are then going back to horses they are superior than.

If horses have made their way to a Rating 80 or an Ave MR 1.59 but have since dropped off in form shouldn't be given the opportunity to race in Rating 60 or an Ave MR 2.01 against horses who have never ever made it past Rating 60 or Ave MR 2.01
Maybe this is where a good handicapper comes into play. Why not a race for the Rating 80 horses with $ This Season less than x. May not be a full field of 12, but perhaps a race with 7-8 horse all being a live chance would be a better betting proposition than plonking them back in the Rating 60 category as $1.10 shot.

As much as they think they police it, trainers are not immune to winning a race then after 4 or 5 unsuccessful runs, going around another half dozen times quietly, or dead for the usual term, to get the drop back. Isn't any inconvenience when you have a few horses, you're already going, so why not take 1 dead one with you as well.

The stewards are probably aware of it, but proving it is another matter. I was informed early on in my career that there were many ways of getting beaten without causing alarm.