Vic Derby Final, Great Southern Star, 4yo Bonanza

[aussiebreno]

Using Kevs long bow from the weekend, nearly scratch Hardhitter so Demon Delight gets a run in the Derby final!

[Messenger]

Where do I find the draw Brendan?
I don't want a stream and I shouldn't have to be a facebooker
Site should have it front and centre

[aussiebreno]

Where do I find the draw Brendan?
I don't want a stream and I shouldn't have to be a facebooker
Site should have it front and centre

I seen it on Facebook.

Tab.com.au are always quick with Fixed Odds so for future reference maybe try there.

I see now up on harness.org

[Messenger]

Thanks Brendan, how good does the 4yo Bonanza look!

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX260119

[Messenger]

Using Kevs long bow from the weekend, nearly scratch Hardhitter so Demon Delight gets a run in the Derby final!

The emergency is 4th favourite at $8.50

[Dot]

Different connections doubt the camp will want to be putting either offside, particularly with the yearling sales on the doorstep, but no doubt there will be plenty hoping Demons Delight gets a run but the marbles certainly seem to have fallen Allstars way.

With barrier draws playing such an influential role in the outcome of races is it time we look at changing how these are done for features such as this. With Centenario missing the final argueably as a result as an inequitable distribution of talent in the heats is it time to look at how these are determined as well.

Do we do away with driver splits and the like and seed the heats to ensure an even distribution of the most favoured runners to ensure the best opportunity for all or as many as possible of the favoured runners to reach the final? And do we use the American model whereby the heat winners get to choose their barrier or draw randomly from a small selection of more favourable barriers in an effort to ensure a good contest and maximise wagering outcomes?

Some may think that unfair, but was it fair to the connections in the strongest heat last week? Did horses selected in the weakest heat get an unfair advantage? Wouldn’t leveling this out result in a more level playing field for all and a maximisation of wagering returns which is best for the industry as a whole. Heats would be seeded but not the draw in the heats, the less favoured horses still get an opportunity to make the final, and have the added incentive that if they produce a performance good enough to win a heat they are guaranteed a good draw in the final.

[Dot]

As a footnote to the previous whilst obviously regardless of seeding it is always possible that a favoured runner misses the final in this case of Centenario missing the final the following flow on effects occured. Under the current class system Centenario, despite 8 wins and $300k is a 3CO, the same as a 3yo who has not won a race at all and perhaps not even started. Centenario nominated for a semi feature $25k 3C0 to 3C2 race for which he was eligible, and under the conditions would have drawn better then a 3C1 which may have only won one race worth $5k to become a 3C1, and better then a 3C2 who may only have won 2 races one worth $5k and the other $7k. That is the extreme example and certainly some of the other 3yos nominated were better performed then that.

But obviously the connections of many of the other horses nominated did not wish to take on a horse of Centenarios calibre (no doubt he would have started an extremely short priced favourite) and withdrew resulting in the race not standing up, and all prospective runners missing out on an opportunity to race and earn for their connections.

This is the inequity that the ratings system should address, with Centenarios rating based on his 2yo form most likely excluding him from this semi feature race, leaving more “like” performed 3yos to race each other. Of course some would say that it is unfair that he would have to take on older horses, and possibly for less money, in order to get a start, and maybe it is just a little. But ideally he would be in the derby final, I think it safe to say the run he produced outside Im Another Masterpiece in either of the other heats, or if the heats were seeded would have seen Centenario progress to the derby final where he should be.

And if we are to reduce our reliance on shuttle sires, and stem the flow of money from Oz to the USA then we need to give our best colts the opportunity to race each other at every occasion, and without hindrance from inequitable barrier draws to find who is really best and establish their credentials to stand at stud.

[Messenger]

Very disappointing for the Gaths to have to scratch Tornado from his biggest pay day

http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=39381

[Messenger]

Using Kevs long bow from the weekend, nearly scratch Hardhitter so Demon Delight gets a run in the Derby final!

It was a different stablemate - Perfect Major

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX260119#MXM26011906

[Messenger]

Thanks Brendan, how good does the 4yo Bonanza look!

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX260119

If one of Emma Stewart's first up runners wins this she will poached by an English stable to train their Melbourne Cup hopeful

[aussiebreno]

Very disappointing for the Gaths to have to scratch Tornado from his biggest pay day

http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=39381
Bugger. I'm attending Melton tonight he was a big reason!

[aussiebreno]

It was a different stablemate - Perfect Major

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX260119#MXM26011906

Interesting.

[Messenger]

I would have liked to go but have been doing a lot of miles lately and just got home on Thursday. I might make do with Stawell on Monday

Dot gave me an interesting analysis of the Derby with a couple of scenarios.
Do you think that IAM might consider handing up to the Muscle to avoid Hardhitter pressure (guessing he might be the Stewart stables sacrificial lamb) and IAM would thereby have first use of Sprint lane

[Messenger]

David Aiken chose an M0 for 4yo Higherthananeagle tonight while connections of a couple of much lower assessed horses chose to tackle the talent in the 4yo Bonanza (100k)

[Messenger]

If one of Emma Stewart's first up runners wins this she will poached by an English stable to train their Melbourne Cup hopeful

Offers could be coming. Terrific win by Poster Boy
The NZers had terrific Inter campaigns but freshness over the short trip proved the winner

[Messenger]

The First 4 in the Derby were the same First 4 as heat 2 from Ballarat with the quinella reversed

Here is the heat 2 result to refresh your memory

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA190119#BAC19011910

[Messenger]

Dance Craze's 1.58.8 for 2760m was only 0.1 secs off the Tk Rec
I was only marveling last night that mum still holds the mile record at Geelong (from 2001)